Could Rising Demand in 2013 Boost Prices?

It looks like home prices finally hit bottom in 2012, so now what? Buyers increasingly expect home prices to continue to rise in 2013 and many are showing a sense of urgency. If 2013 is the first year since 2006 that prices ended up, we might see the beginning of equilibrium in the housing market.

In most of the nation, every single indicator is giving a thumbs up signal: inventory is falling, affordability is near a record high and household formation is up. Rents are rising in many markets, encouraging renters to buy and in some cases they can buy for a lower monthly outlay than renting. Investor demand for housing is up as they seek better returns for their money.

Rising prices could eventually encourage more sellers to put their homes on the market, fueling demand even further.  Why? Sellers have to live somewhere, often they are up sizing, down sizing or moving for retirement, all of which they put off waiting for higher prices. So many if not most sellers are buyers as well.

What's the catch?  Well, the folks in Washington aren't helping matters. Buyers and sellers want economic stability when they go to the market; "Fiscal Cliffs" with the uncertainty about what Congress might do, if indeed they do anything at all, doesn't help the economy or the housing market.

The Shadow Market in 2013

The real estate market across the county came alive in late 2012 with home sales and housing starts up strongly.  Prices are doing better, too.  But skeptics still point to sizable overhang of properties headed to foreclosure--the so called "shadow" inventory--that they say will erode the market's recent gains.  Maybe.  

While the shadow inventory remains high, it may not choke off the strength we're seeing.  There are several reasons, first the number of homes in foreclosure is shrinking, down from a peak of 4.7 million nationally in 2009 to 3.4 million at  the end of 2012. The discount at which foreclosures sell has narrowed significantly, from around 24% in 2009 to 7% now. Inventories of new homes for sale are tight and the number of listings of previously owned homes is at an eleven year low. 

On the demand side, sales of new homes are up strongly and sales of previously owned homes are likely to follow. Investor buying has slowed in most areas as well. Mortgage rates remain at historic lows for those who can qualify and are likely to stay low for the next several years. Banks have become more adept at handling foreclosures and realize it's not in their interest to dump large numbers of houses on the market.  They do more short sales now, where they allow the home owner to sell for less than the mortgage owned--faster and less costly for the bank.  

It's going to take years for housing is back to normal, but as long the recovery continues, however slowly, the shadow market should have little effect.

Facebook Tips for Real People

Facebook is here to stay, for the moment at least...well, remember My Space?

But while it's here, make the most of it to enrich your life and your community.

Don't shoot for the 5000 friend maximum.  It you can't put a face to the name, you probably should "unfriend" them...don't worry, unless they're very tech savvy they'll never notice and if they do, maybe they're worth knowing and adding back.  

Focus instead on developing around 300 to 500 online friends within your immediate community, your family, your work, your interests and those with whom you, no kidding, want to keep up with. 

Then comment in thoughtful ways after carefully reading and understanding what they post and what's going on in their lives.  Focus on their successes and improving your community, then: Get Involved in the Real World:  Join a civic group, church, adopt a pet, volunteer--anything to start expanding your circle of friends IN PERSON.

Make Facebook a tool, not an occupation.

10 Lessons Learned as Housing Recovers

Headlines abound: The Housing Bust is over… 

Housing has hit bottom and is turning around.  Realtors, homeowners, renters, and all Americans are sighing with collective relief.  If they're correct.

But first we need to pause and consider what we've learned in the last few years:

1  The economy is global.  The mess in Europe has to be resolved for the U S to see a sustained economic recovery and sustained housing recovery.

2 The folks in Washington D.C. must get their act together, work together and begin to resolve the economic issues facing the nation.  Fiscal cliffs, increased government spending and borrowing from China to support that spending do not bolster consumer confidence or boost the economy. 

3 The economy cannot recover without housing. Good News: the stock prices of the major U. S. home builders are up and they are beginning to build again. That puts Americans to work and guess what, if you have a job, that's the first step to buying your  own house.   

4 Homeowners confidence in the economy is directly related the value of their own homes.

5 Everyone needs shelter, but not everyone needs to own their shelter.  The American dream of owning your own home may not be appropriate for everyone.

6 High home ownership rates are important but they must be sustainable.  Owners must be able to afford their homes in the long run.

7 Home prices go UP and go DOWN.  If home prices have bottomed, they're likely to remain stable for some time.  Increases for the foreseeable future are likely to mirror the rate of inflation for most areas, but there'll be exceptions of course.

8 The process of purchasing/financing a home is more complicated now than ever before and will remain so. Sound  mortgage underwriting is critical.  Prospective buyers must be prepared for a detailed application process to get a mortgage. Expect every fact and every document to be verified. 

9 Home equity should not be used for ordinary living expenses.  We're not likely to see the days of taking out equity every few years.  

10 Financial reserves for families, companies, and countries are necessary.

What is important is that we remember what happened as we prepare to write the future.  Most importantly, we should also have a sense of accomplishment that we endured these life lessons.

There are seasons in the weather: spring, summer, fall and winter.  So there are in economic cycles.  It is great to be at the thaw of winter and the budding of spring.

U..S. Home Prices Showing Consistent Gains

Finally, home prices across the country are showing consistent increases most likely due to a decline in foreclosures and the lowest mortgage rates in history.  In fact, some of the cities hardest hit by the real estate bust have seen impressive price increases: Phoenix up nearly 14 percent, Miami up 4.4 percent. 


Even with these gains, prices have a long way to go to recover from their plunge during the housing bust of 2006-2008.  Nationally prices were down 31.6 percent below the April 2006 peak, based on the S&P/CaseShiller index which covers about half of U. S. homes.
 
And keep in mind we're not yet seeing price increases in the Grand Strand market, though we are seeing more sales.  What's holding us back?  Possibly that we have more second homes and investment properties, categories that have more distressed inventory.