Housing Recovery Picks Up Speed

The housing recovery has picked up speed, as home prices posted their highest year-over-year gain since February 2006, according to the latest housing data from CoreLogic. 

CoreLogic's home price index climbed 12.1 percent in April over year-ago levels. Home prices have been on the rise for more than a year. 

"The pace of the housing market recovery quickened in April as home prices rose across the U.S.," says Anand Nallathambi, CoreLogic's chief executive officer. "We expect this trend to continue, bolstered by tight supplies and pent-up buyer demand."

CoreLogic economists predict home prices will rise another 2.7 percent in May. 

The following five states had the largest price gains over the past year: 

• Nevada: +24.6%
• California: +19.4%
• Arizona: +17.3%
• Hawaii: +17%
• Oregon: +15.5%

Will this trend continue, yes, but almost certainly not at this pace.  

Financing and re-financing remain difficult for most buyers, new construction is ramping up and sellers who had postponed selling are not listing their houses; these factors and others will pressure further price increases.

And, let's learn from experience, it prices do continue to increase at these levels, what's that called?  A BUBBLE.  What the nation needs to see is steady increase in housing prices, matching the the rate of inflation or a little more.

The Shadow Market in 2013

The real estate market across the county came alive in late 2012 with home sales and housing starts up strongly.  Prices are doing better, too.  But skeptics still point to sizable overhang of properties headed to foreclosure--the so called "shadow" inventory--that they say will erode the market's recent gains.  Maybe.  

While the shadow inventory remains high, it may not choke off the strength we're seeing.  There are several reasons, first the number of homes in foreclosure is shrinking, down from a peak of 4.7 million nationally in 2009 to 3.4 million at  the end of 2012. The discount at which foreclosures sell has narrowed significantly, from around 24% in 2009 to 7% now. Inventories of new homes for sale are tight and the number of listings of previously owned homes is at an eleven year low. 

On the demand side, sales of new homes are up strongly and sales of previously owned homes are likely to follow. Investor buying has slowed in most areas as well. Mortgage rates remain at historic lows for those who can qualify and are likely to stay low for the next several years. Banks have become more adept at handling foreclosures and realize it's not in their interest to dump large numbers of houses on the market.  They do more short sales now, where they allow the home owner to sell for less than the mortgage owned--faster and less costly for the bank.  

It's going to take years for housing is back to normal, but as long the recovery continues, however slowly, the shadow market should have little effect.

10 Lessons Learned as Housing Recovers

Headlines abound: The Housing Bust is over… 

Housing has hit bottom and is turning around.  Realtors, homeowners, renters, and all Americans are sighing with collective relief.  If they're correct.

But first we need to pause and consider what we've learned in the last few years:

1  The economy is global.  The mess in Europe has to be resolved for the U S to see a sustained economic recovery and sustained housing recovery.

2 The folks in Washington D.C. must get their act together, work together and begin to resolve the economic issues facing the nation.  Fiscal cliffs, increased government spending and borrowing from China to support that spending do not bolster consumer confidence or boost the economy. 

3 The economy cannot recover without housing. Good News: the stock prices of the major U. S. home builders are up and they are beginning to build again. That puts Americans to work and guess what, if you have a job, that's the first step to buying your  own house.   

4 Homeowners confidence in the economy is directly related the value of their own homes.

5 Everyone needs shelter, but not everyone needs to own their shelter.  The American dream of owning your own home may not be appropriate for everyone.

6 High home ownership rates are important but they must be sustainable.  Owners must be able to afford their homes in the long run.

7 Home prices go UP and go DOWN.  If home prices have bottomed, they're likely to remain stable for some time.  Increases for the foreseeable future are likely to mirror the rate of inflation for most areas, but there'll be exceptions of course.

8 The process of purchasing/financing a home is more complicated now than ever before and will remain so. Sound  mortgage underwriting is critical.  Prospective buyers must be prepared for a detailed application process to get a mortgage. Expect every fact and every document to be verified. 

9 Home equity should not be used for ordinary living expenses.  We're not likely to see the days of taking out equity every few years.  

10 Financial reserves for families, companies, and countries are necessary.

What is important is that we remember what happened as we prepare to write the future.  Most importantly, we should also have a sense of accomplishment that we endured these life lessons.

There are seasons in the weather: spring, summer, fall and winter.  So there are in economic cycles.  It is great to be at the thaw of winter and the budding of spring.

National Flood Insurance Re-Authorized

The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 was passed late last week as part of a transportation funding bill and signed into law by the president on July 6, 2012. The legislation extends National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authority through September 30, 2017.


This 5 year re-authorization of the National Flood Insurance Program ensures access to affordable flood insurance for millions of home and business owners across the country. The 5-year re-authorization will end the uncertainty of NFIP stopgap extensions and shutdowns.


This legislation is especially important to Grand Strand property owners as flood insurance is required for mortgages. Without NFIP flood insurance rates would sky rocket, pricing many out of the market and further depressing coastal South Carolina prices.

Harvard: Home Sales Finally Poised to Improve

Harvard: Home Sales Finally Poised to Improve


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