Myrtle Beach Real Estate Report for July 2013

Good news for the Grand Strand Real Estate Market

In July, Single Family Residential Sales were up 12.5% compared to 2012; year to date, SFR sales are up 20.1% from 2012. In addition to these strong sales numbers, prices are up as well, the median sales price was $177,836 up 4.94% over last July and 4.77% year to date.  Inventories of homes for sale continued to decline, but are still up 4.45% from last year, but the good news for sellers is the distressed inventory (houses in foreclosure) is down 32.6% below last year—taking some downward pressure off prices.

Condos sales are up 17% compared to last July and 7.6% year to date. The median condo sale price is $110,000, up 16.4% over last July and up 2.6% year to date.  Condo inventory is down 8.43% and the distressed inventory down a whopping 43.7%.

What do all these numbers mean to the average seller or buyer?  For sellers, it’s looking better and if you’ve priced your house with the market, stick with your price.  For buyers, it’s no longer the time to make unrealistically low offers as sellers are seeing multiple offers for well-priced homes.

This data is based on research by Site Tech Systems; read their full report at: 

http://www.sitetechsystems.com/Grand_Strand_Market_Report.pdf

Flay Day, Georgetown

There will be a Retirement of Flag Service at Morgan Park in Georgetown on Flay Day, June 14, sponsored by the DAR, Daughters of the American Revolution.  Used Flags, no longer suitable of use, can be dropped off at the Georgetown County Chamber of Commerce on Front Street.  The Ceremony is at 10 AM.

GRAND STRAND MARKET REPORT April 2013

Here's the mostly good news from Site Tech Systems:

Single family homes sales are up in April, 31.5% from last year; year to date sales are up 19.5% from 2012. The median sales price shows signs of stabilization, up 3.1% from 2012.  However, as the number of sales climbs and prices stabilize, more homes are coming on the market, inventory is about 6% above last year and will probably continue to grow in May.  Increasing inventory tends to keep prices down, but fewer available homes are distressed inventory (homes in some stage of foreclosure) which is good as distressed home sales tend to put downward pressure on prices.

Condo sales, both in number and median price remained flat with 2012 and inventory continues to decline, both overall and distressed, which over the next few months should help prices.

Much better news for sellers and for buyers, time to take action.

Read the entire report at:

http://www.sitetechsystems.com/Grand_Strand_Market_Report.pdf

Myrtle Beach Real Estate Market, February 2013

Here's the February Grand Strand Market Report from 
SiteTech Sytems:

"January’s momentum continued in February…..strong sales 

and rebounded sales price led a strong February.

Single Family Residential (SFR) sales activity remained strong as 

February’s volume was up 13.6% from February 2012. Year to 

date, SFR sales volume is up 16.6% to prior year levels. SFR 

inventory is seasonally up, however February’s level is 3% higher 

that prior year levels. On a positive note, non-distressed listings 

continue to decline and now represent a declining share of the 

total listing inventory. SFR median sales price rebounded from 

January to $175,000. This improvement was driven by higher 

non-distressed sales prices. Year to date, SFR median sales 

price is down 3.7% from 2012. Condo sales activity was strong in 

February; up 18.7% from prior year level. Year to date, condo 

sales are up 21.9%. Condo inventory increased seasonally, but is 

still below prior year levels (down 10.4%). Condo median sales 

prices rebounded from January, up 14.5% from January. The 

improvement was in both distressed and non-distressed 

sales. Year to date, the condo median sales price is up 9.5% 

from 2012. The rate of residential lot sales improvement slowed, 

but the 2013 volume is up 9% from 2012. Overall, distress sales 

remain at 28% of all sales, up slightly from Q4 2012."

For the full report, click:

Grand Strand February Market Report 2013

Good bye to Adjustable Rate Mortgages?

The Feds have changed the rules for adjustable rate mortgages making it harder for buyers to qualify and probably forecasting the end of ARMs.

They've instituted an ability to repay rule, effective January 2014, requiring lenders to evaluate whether a borrower can repay if the loan adjusts upwards.  Unlike fixed rate mortgages which have the same interest rate and payment over the life of the loan, ARMs fluctuate with interest rates, usually being pegged to LIBOR, a world wide reference rate computed in London.

Instead of qualifying buyers with an ARM's low introductory rate, the lender will be required to use the loans loan's "fully indexed rate" or LIBOR plus the lender's margin.  This will make it harder for some buyers to qualify,  but once they do it's less likely they'll be forced out of their home if (really when) interest rates rise.

One thing for sure, interest rates will eventually go up,  it's just a matter of when and how far--how can I be so sure, easy, they can't go much lower unless we start paying banks to hold our money....

So why bother with an ARM?  An ARM with a low introductory rate might make sense if you know you will be moving around the end of the introductory period; otherwise a fixed rate mortgage is likely to be a better deal for the long term.

Could Rising Demand in 2013 Boost Prices?

It looks like home prices finally hit bottom in 2012, so now what? Buyers increasingly expect home prices to continue to rise in 2013 and many are showing a sense of urgency. If 2013 is the first year since 2006 that prices ended up, we might see the beginning of equilibrium in the housing market.

In most of the nation, every single indicator is giving a thumbs up signal: inventory is falling, affordability is near a record high and household formation is up. Rents are rising in many markets, encouraging renters to buy and in some cases they can buy for a lower monthly outlay than renting. Investor demand for housing is up as they seek better returns for their money.

Rising prices could eventually encourage more sellers to put their homes on the market, fueling demand even further.  Why? Sellers have to live somewhere, often they are up sizing, down sizing or moving for retirement, all of which they put off waiting for higher prices. So many if not most sellers are buyers as well.

What's the catch?  Well, the folks in Washington aren't helping matters. Buyers and sellers want economic stability when they go to the market; "Fiscal Cliffs" with the uncertainty about what Congress might do, if indeed they do anything at all, doesn't help the economy or the housing market.

The Shadow Market in 2013

The real estate market across the county came alive in late 2012 with home sales and housing starts up strongly.  Prices are doing better, too.  But skeptics still point to sizable overhang of properties headed to foreclosure--the so called "shadow" inventory--that they say will erode the market's recent gains.  Maybe.  

While the shadow inventory remains high, it may not choke off the strength we're seeing.  There are several reasons, first the number of homes in foreclosure is shrinking, down from a peak of 4.7 million nationally in 2009 to 3.4 million at  the end of 2012. The discount at which foreclosures sell has narrowed significantly, from around 24% in 2009 to 7% now. Inventories of new homes for sale are tight and the number of listings of previously owned homes is at an eleven year low. 

On the demand side, sales of new homes are up strongly and sales of previously owned homes are likely to follow. Investor buying has slowed in most areas as well. Mortgage rates remain at historic lows for those who can qualify and are likely to stay low for the next several years. Banks have become more adept at handling foreclosures and realize it's not in their interest to dump large numbers of houses on the market.  They do more short sales now, where they allow the home owner to sell for less than the mortgage owned--faster and less costly for the bank.  

It's going to take years for housing is back to normal, but as long the recovery continues, however slowly, the shadow market should have little effect.

10 Lessons Learned as Housing Recovers

Headlines abound: The Housing Bust is over… 

Housing has hit bottom and is turning around.  Realtors, homeowners, renters, and all Americans are sighing with collective relief.  If they're correct.

But first we need to pause and consider what we've learned in the last few years:

1  The economy is global.  The mess in Europe has to be resolved for the U S to see a sustained economic recovery and sustained housing recovery.

2 The folks in Washington D.C. must get their act together, work together and begin to resolve the economic issues facing the nation.  Fiscal cliffs, increased government spending and borrowing from China to support that spending do not bolster consumer confidence or boost the economy. 

3 The economy cannot recover without housing. Good News: the stock prices of the major U. S. home builders are up and they are beginning to build again. That puts Americans to work and guess what, if you have a job, that's the first step to buying your  own house.   

4 Homeowners confidence in the economy is directly related the value of their own homes.

5 Everyone needs shelter, but not everyone needs to own their shelter.  The American dream of owning your own home may not be appropriate for everyone.

6 High home ownership rates are important but they must be sustainable.  Owners must be able to afford their homes in the long run.

7 Home prices go UP and go DOWN.  If home prices have bottomed, they're likely to remain stable for some time.  Increases for the foreseeable future are likely to mirror the rate of inflation for most areas, but there'll be exceptions of course.

8 The process of purchasing/financing a home is more complicated now than ever before and will remain so. Sound  mortgage underwriting is critical.  Prospective buyers must be prepared for a detailed application process to get a mortgage. Expect every fact and every document to be verified. 

9 Home equity should not be used for ordinary living expenses.  We're not likely to see the days of taking out equity every few years.  

10 Financial reserves for families, companies, and countries are necessary.

What is important is that we remember what happened as we prepare to write the future.  Most importantly, we should also have a sense of accomplishment that we endured these life lessons.

There are seasons in the weather: spring, summer, fall and winter.  So there are in economic cycles.  It is great to be at the thaw of winter and the budding of spring.

Harvard: Home Sales Finally Poised to Improve

Harvard: Home Sales Finally Poised to Improve


Click the link above to read the article...

Forecosures Take Big Jump in 1st Quarter

In the first quarter of 2012, Horry County foreclosure filings were up 95% compared to last year with about 1460, most of which were lis pendens, the papers lenders file to start the foreclosure process.  About 1 out of every 127 properties in the state has a foreclosure filing, the 3rd highest in the state and the 10th highest in the nation.

What brought about the jump?  The economy is still weak and some of increase is those folks who were struggling to keep ahead and now they've had to let go.  Also federal and state lawsuits against 5 of the largest lenders has been settled, so a lot of pending foreclosures moved to foreclosure. 

The foreclosures continue to push down prices, in March the median price of a home or condo along the Grand Strand was $130,000 down 10.3 % from the same month last year.  With the tough financing environment, it's investors who are keeping the market going, paying cash--51 % of 1st quarter sales were cash.

February 2012--Sales Up, Prices Down

Real Estate sales along The Grand Strand rose 10.2 percent in February, to 541, compared to last year, significantly out pacing state wide sales which increased 4.8 percent.  But prices continued to fall,  2.2 percent but compared to a state with increase of  2.6 percent.  However, if you look at other areas in the state, we're doing better--Aiken dropped 18.1 percent, Greenwood dropped 17.3 percent, the Piedmont region fell 15 percent and north Augusta fell 13.3 percent.  The median price of a house or a condo along the Strand fell to $135,000.

What are we likely to see going forward? --more of the same as the area works through a back log of foreclosures and a short sales.  Then there is the shadow inventory--houses not on the market, but whose owners want to sell.  Some are owned by banks and will hit the market as the foreclosure process is completed while others are owned by individuals waiting for the market to improve.

When can we see prices firming? Probably not until 2014.  When can we expect to see prices increasing? Even further out and then nothing like the boom years 2000-2006.  When prices start to increase again, they're likely to pace the rate of inflation, 2-3 percent a year.

Bottom line: A buyer's market for the next few years.

Grand Strand Market Report, January 2012

After declining during the second half of 2011, the number of single family homes and condos on the market increased slightly in January 2012, however, the 2012 inventory is still below January 2011 by almost 6%.  Good news if this trend continues.

Sale prices increased Horry and Georgetown Counties except in top end properties; another good trend; top end homes will respond in time.  The number of sales of single family homes was up almost 14% in January as compared to last year, but distressed (foreclosures & short sales) properties accounted for 37% of all single family sales.  While this is the best January sales performance since 2007, those distressed sales kept the median home price to $163,700, up slightly from a year ago. 

Condo sales numbers are similar, slight increase in inventory with a median sales price of $94,900, a 10% drop from January 2012.  The price drop was fueled by distressed sales and the large number of cash buyers--over 70% of all condos were sold for cash.  The high percentage of condo cash sales is interesting, probably mostly real estate investors who hope to turn a profit in a few years.  Time will tell, stay tuned. 

Technology Notes

Have trouble keeping up with the modern world? Does your "smart" phone have a mind of it's own? Have trouble figuring out how to get your CD collection into your walkman, er, ipod?

Check into OLLI, that is Osher Life Long Learning Institute at Coastal Carolina University which provides scores of short courses for adults during the day and evening at three locations along the Grand Strand.  I heard about a class for android tablet users, signed up and spent three delightful afternoons at CCU's 79th Street campus with instructor Kathleen Libby, a seasoned instructor and self admitted "geek."  The classes cost a few bucks, but I learned numerous tricks about my android tablet AND almost all of them were directly applicable to my android phone. I've now figured out what a widget is, how to "sync" my portable devices with my desk top and how to print from the "cloud."

Kathleen's tip on wire management for all those wires under your desk was alone worth the price of the course--visit the drug store for some of those clips that ladies use to hold their pony tails in place; that's right, they come in all sizes and snap open and closed.  You can go from an unsightly mess of cables to a neat solution in a skinny minute.

More information on OLLI at www.coastal.edu/olli or call 843-349-2767.  

Popsitive Trends in 2011 & 2012

Clearly 2011 was a challenging year, but there is a lot to be positive about looking ahead to the rest of 2012.  Housing statistics are starting to look good and the length of the housing down turn itself points to turning the corner, maybe this summer.  Washington's fiscal policy remains indecisive, but most major economic indicators are showing stability and positive, though admittedly weak trends.  The pace of growth is slow, but that's to be expected in an economic recovery from a financial crisis. 

Some good trends:

• Households are paying off their consumer debt even though credit is becoming easier to obtain, including home equity lines of credit which grew for the first time in years in the 3rd quarter of 2011. 
• Consumer sentiment picked up sharply in the last half of 2011, to a 6 month high in December.  Still low, but maybe consumers believe the economy will pick up in 2012.  Increasing confidence can become self fulfilling.
• The labor market is slowly coming back--December jobless claims were at their lowest level since 2008, but unemployment remains persistently high and gains are often due to declines in the number of people in the workforce.  It's going to take years until we get unemployment down to where it should be, 2 or 3 percent, and until we do, those folks can't buy houses and will have trouble keeping the ones they have, both downward pressure on the housing market.
• Housing prices continue to decline, a trend that will continue until we work off the backlog of foreclosures, short sales and the shadow inventory  (homes that folks want to sell which they took off the market, waiting for higher prices).  Until all of these houses are sold, prices will remain under pressure.  Housing recessions are always long and this one is no different.  But the good news is, affordability is rising dramatically due to lower prices and rock bottom mortgage rates.

Home prices may not stabilize completely in 2012, but we're getting closer--rising affordability itself will put a floor under prices, maybe this summer.  Stay tuned.

Better Year in 2012?

No question about it, new home construction around town has picked up since the first of the year.  While noting like boom days a few years back, builders are back to work, perhaps at pre boom levels, building homes in all price ranges.  Hard data are difficult to gather and it's difficult to say what's causing this up tick in construction, but several things may be driving buyers.  First, folks may just be tired of waiting, second, interest rates remain historically low for those who qualify and third, some of the new homes sitting on the market have been sold and inventory levels are down from a year ago.

One thing for sure, the market is more competitive than ever as the many foreclosures and short sales continue to push prices lower. Home buyers are all looking for a good deal and all expect to spend less money than a few yearts ago, so builders will have to squeeze their profit margins and be ready to bargain.  Buyers who are serious have their financing lined up and ready to sign, something we haven't seen in a while.  If one developer can't make the deal happen, the next one will.

2012 may not mark the end of our troubled housing market, but it may mark the beginning of the long awaited stabilization of house prices and better markets down the road.